Accuracy Scorecard
Every Visa Bulletin prediction tool claims to forecast the future, then disclaims that it “may vary significantly.” None of them publish how often they were actually right. We do — and we count the misses.
Hit rate across 12,197 backtested one-month projections (all categories, both charts). Accuracy decays sharply with horizon — a one-month call is reliable, a six-month one is a rough guide. We show both rather than advertise only the flattering number. “Median miss” is the typical error; the mean is larger because a few retrogressions miss badly.
How it’s computed
We hold a complete, committed series of 202 consecutive monthly bulletins (October 2009 – July 2026). We replay the exact velocity model the site ships — trailing 24-month median pace — as it would have run in every past month, then compare its projection to what the State Department actually published 1, 3, 6 months later. A projection is a hit if it lands within ±31days of the real cutoff. Months where a category went Current or Unavailable aren’t date predictions, so they are reported separately and never counted in the denominator.
Each cell is graded green ≥70%, amber 50–69%, red <50% — the red ones stay visible.
By category & country
| Category | Chart | 1mo | 3mo | 6mo | Median miss (1mo) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-2 — India | Final Action Dates | 52% | 25% | 13% | 28d |
| EB-2 — China | Final Action Dates | 63% | 32% | 9% | 23d |
| EB-3 — India | Final Action Dates | 76% | 39% | 28% | 12d |
| EB-3 — China | Final Action Dates | 54% | 17% | 5% | 31d |
| EB-2 — India | Dates for Filing | 84% | 61% | 41% | 0d |
| EB-3 — India | Dates for Filing | 84% | 60% | 36% | 0d |
| EB-5 Unreserved — China | Dates for Filing | 91% | 73% | 58% | 0d |
| F2A — Mexico | Final Action Dates | 53% | 34% | 22% | 30d |
| F3 — Mexico | Final Action Dates | 90% | 63% | 39% | 7d |
| F4 — Mexico | Final Action Dates | 92% | 74% | 53% | 7d |
| F4 — Philippines | Final Action Dates | 70% | 37% | 27% | 17d |
Final Action Dates govern green-card approval; Dates for Filing govern when you may submit. Filing dates move more predictably, which is why their scores run higher. Full per-cell data (all 116 categories) is in the build artifact behind this page.
How a live prediction is logged
The table above is a historical backtest. Going forward, each live forecast is also written to an append-only log before the corresponding bulletin is published, then reconciled against the actual cutoff once it appears — the record cannot be edited after the outcome is known. See the methodology for the model itself.
Sources & verification
Compiled and reviewed by the GreenCard Radar editorial team · Data as of July 2026